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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 11/10/20

Up 11/4/20

Up 11/9/20

Short term

? 11/18/20

Up 11/5/20

? 11/18/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Earnings so far

Most of the talk on TV is about the earnings beats.  I saw a reporter the other day that usually talks about earnings and revenue, not this time.  All he showed was the earnings part.  Looking at the following charts I think I understand why.



The slow down in the global economy and its affect on revenue seems to be catching companies by surprise. I think there were enough companies reporting by now to make this a representative sample.  The numbers might change some by the end, but I suspect they won't be too far off.  The last I read analysts were still expecting 12% earnings growth in the fourth quarter.  I think that has been helping to support the market.

Check out the chart of profit margins.


This chart clearly shows profit margins are at record highs.  They have likely wrung out all the cost savings they can.  Earnings growth will depend on revenue growth from here on out.  I think the rest of this earnings season is very important.  The revenue numbers will be looked at closely by the analysts.  There could be considerable revisions to earnings numbers down the road.  Whether people choose to ignore that like they have the poor economic data remains to be seen.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.