If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Friday, July 13, 2012

Dollar index

I am constantly reading and hearing people talking about how bearish the dollar is.  I find this talk pretty interesting since the FED has been printing a lot of money and yet the dollar isn't going down.  Here is a look at the monthly chart.

There are a couple of things here that make me doubt a bearish call on the dollar.  We can see we have green price bars and price appears to be breaking out above its 60 SMA.  That is a something the prior two rallies failed to do.  The Keltner channel is in the same area so it is trying to break out of that as well.  Check out the ADX indicator in the bottom panel.  Notice the ADX (blue line) was falling throughout both the prior rallies.  It is now clearly rising on the current move up.  This is the first time it has done that since the top back in 2001.  This looks like a bullish chart to me.  The fact that so many people doubt it, makes it that much more bullish.  These are the conditions that can launch multi-year bull markets.  There are some implications for markets if a sustained move up happens.  There will be some negative affects on corporate revenue.  The size of that problem depends on how big and fast the up move is.  There is also likely to be some affect on various commodities.  I think oil and precious metals have traditionally been affected the most.  Anybody making bets that can be affected by a rising dollar should monitor this situation closely.


No comments:


The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.