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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

?+ 9/25/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

Dn 9/21/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Daily update 7/31

Did we start a pullback today?  Here is the daily SPX chart.


Indecision yesterday was followed by more indecision this morning.  However at the close we ended up below yesterday's low.  I think the more significant chart is of breadth.


We have completed negative crossovers again.  This is the first peak where the McClellan oscillator was under 100.  That lack of strength does not give us particularly good odds of a retest should the pullback continue from here.  This looks like an exhausted market to me.  At the same time, they have been parading a lot of people on Bloomberg TV telling me what a great time to buy it is.  This looks like it is now time to embark on the test of the June low I feel like I have been talking about forever.  We will have to see what happens after the FED announcement tomorrow.  I am afraid we have used up so much buying power on this rally that the low will not hold for long if we do get back down there.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.