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Tuesday, July 17, 2012

Daily update 7/17

That was one odd day.  Everybody sell, no wait, everybody buy.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

We got a green bar today.  However, we are still in the triangle.  At least we are getting real close to the apex now.  The market will be making a decision here very soon.  It looks like there is room for about two more days.  There was an increase in volume today, but that is a bit muddy.  Check out the 60 minute SPY chart.

The biggest volume came on the morning sell off.  The last bar of the day was abnormally light for a last bar. The new blue line represents a gap fill from the 7/6 gap down.  We came within a whisker of a fill.  That is close enough if the market turns back down to consider it filled.  Today did not help the breadth charts any. The 10 DMA lines are closer together then they were yesterday and the SPX chart is still in full negative crossovers.  The breadth data is typical of a retest of a high that is likely to fail.

 I think price is likely to be a bit unpredictable until we get outside the daily triangle pattern.  We clearly have a sizable crowd in both camps.  They will be battling it out for control of the market.  Stay nimble until we get resolution.


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