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Monday, July 16, 2012

Daily update 7/16

That was a pretty listless day.  I heard a lot of traders on Bloomberg that were very bullish based on Friday.  I just don't see it.  We didn't go anywhere we have not already been several times over the last few weeks.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

We are moving closer to the apex of the triangle.  Price bars are still neutral.  We have a hanging man candlestick today, but we have not had much of a move up into it.  Since we did not close above yesterday's high we can't claim a break of the 18 SMA.  That 50 SMA has a pretty steep downward slope.  It is also below the lower trend line.  If get back below there, look out below.  Here is the SPY 195 minute chart.

We can see that SPY was unable to get above the resistance line or the 18 SMA.  Price bars are still neutral on this time frame also.  Nothing for the bulls to write home about here yet.  How about the 30 minute SPY chart.

We have a pretty clear triple top right at the resistance line.  We also closed below the 18 SMA at the end of the day. 

I just can't see anything in these charts that tells me the bulls are in control.  It looks like we could roll over again pretty easily.  I think the burden of proof is still on the bulls.


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