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Monday, July 9, 2012

A bottom or not a bottom

I thought I would take a look at some things to see how they compare to the last two major lows at the same point.  Lets start out with the number of stocks above their 50 MA.

As you can see five weeks off the low and we have not reached the strength reached in four weeks off the other lows.

Here is a look at the bullish percent indicator.

We did not get down to the same low levels in this sell off.  We also have not gotten as good a surge off the low.  In both the prior instances we were well above the 50 MA by now.  We are only just  now getting to it.

Here is a look at new highs.

We can see that new highs are much better this time.  However, the percentage decline of this pullback was considerably smaller.  The comparison is probably not quite fair.  Needless to say, the strength in new highs is definitely a plus for the bulls.

Here is the McClellan summation chart.

We have not reached the same levels as we did off the last two lows, but we started this time from a much lower level.  This chart has progressed very well.

Here is the weekly SPX chart.

We can easily see there was considerably more testing of lows in the last two bottoms.  We had more selling pressure this time according to the summation index, but no bottom testing.  On the other hand, we have tested the 18 SMA from the bottom the last 3 weeks and have been unable to close above it.

The summation index and new highs look very good.  The weekly chart, the percentage of stocks above their 50 MA, and the bullish percent index are not showing the same strength.  I don't see enough technical strength yet to declare victory for the bulls.   


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