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Wednesday, July 11, 2012

Bear fuel

Recently there has been an uptick in the sentiment indicators based on real money.  Lets start with the active money manager survey (NAAIM).  Here is what the latest chart looks like.

The 7/5 number jumped up to 63 from 45 the week before.  It would appear there was quite a bit of buying on the European summit at the end of June.  I suspect these guys were providing the support we saw at the low of the big gap up day.  There are probably a lot of people underwater know on those purchases.  We are now back to levels seen at the May high right before the big slide down into the June low.

Here is a look at the Rydex Nova/Ursa ratio.

Above .4 is on the high side.  There was a pretty big surge all of a sudden for some reason.  Everybody that went long on that last surge is now underwater.

Both these surveys indicate a lot people going long recently.  If we go down enough to make them start to bail in large numbers there will be plenty of fuel for the down side.  Below the last swing low in the SPX 1309 area would be a very likely spot for a lot of stops.  Breaking that low would confirm the double top pattern and probably cause a cascade down.


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