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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Regional economic data

In looking at the regional economic data charts I noticed a difference between now and last fall.  Below are the Richmond FED, Philly FED, Empire manufacturing, and the Chicago PMI.  Check them out.


The Richmond, Philly and the Empire surveys went negative last fall during the recession scare.  Notice how well the Chicago PMI held up.  It was actually higher last fall then it was earlier in the spring.  This survey is heavily influenced by the auto industry.  That industry is such a big part of GDP that it helped keep the U.S. from going into recession, along with the warm weather.  However, this year is a different story.  This survey is the lowest it has been since the recovery started in 2009.  With the Richmond and Philly data already negative, and the Empire barely positive, the drop in the Chicago number may be very important.  Something to watch going forward.


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