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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

?+ 4/23/20

?+ 4/30/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

? 4/5/21

?- 5/10/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Dn 5/10/21

Dn 5/4/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Monday, June 18, 2012

Market internals

In looking over the market internals I noticed some things I want to show you.  First up is the number of stocks above the 40 DMA.


We are currently at 37%.  The horizontal trend line is over 60% and represents where we were last Oct. with the same number of days off the low.  Last Oct. we started with a lower value in the indicator and still made a much  higher number.  This number needs to get up to 75-80% to signal the final low might be in.  The market still has work to do.

Here is a look at the number of stocks above the 200 SMA.


This indicator is actually showing a negative divergence to SPX noted by the two trend lines.  A lot of stocks are being left behind on the rally.  This chart suggests we may still get a retest of the low down the road.

Here is a look at the new high chart.


The circled day was when we had the big gap up that folded like a wet blanket.  I commented after that about the big drop in new highs.  The last 2 days SPX has closed above that day, but the number of new highs did not get back to that level.  At least we did get over 100 which is good, but there is not enough strength here to pronounce an all clear.  With only a 10% decline in SPX this would be much better in the 150 area.

How about the bullish percent indicator.


This indicator has barely budged upward at all.  Notice the steep rise out of the Oct. low showing significant buying pressure that is absent now.

I don't have anything that confirms the final low is in yet.  The rally looks pretty tepid based on the internals.  We are in a resistance zone that may be difficult to overcome.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.