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Thursday, June 21, 2012

Goldman Sachs Global Leading Indicator (GLI)

There seems to be some merit to the Goldman Sachs' GLI.  Here is a link to the latest report.  http://www.floatingpath.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/06/may-final-gli.pdf

I have not had success in finding a regular link to their monthly report.   It seems to be rather sporadic.  Here is the latest chart plotted against global production.

A glance at this chart shows it does a reasonable job of leading global production.  The last two times the headline number went negative, production followed and we had a major move down in the stock market.  We are now back in the negative zone.  Will it be like 1998 and turn back up, or will it keep on going down?

Here is a look at the momentum of the GLI.


The momentum for the GLI is still clearly heading down, but that can not be said for industrial production.
The U.S. data has a big influence on global production and we all know there was an upsurge in the U.S. data over the winter.  Lately that data is also starting to soften.

From the Goldman report

 "We have found elsewhere (see Global Economics Paper 214) that this stage of the cycle, when momentum is negative and decelerating, is typically accompanied by worsening data and negative returns. This shift echoes the recent weakness in data globally. Risks to the global economy appear weighted to the downside at present, with the reemergence of Euro area stresses and softer Chinese data causing concern."


There are numerous articles on the web that indicate that global production is going into a contraction phase based on what Goldman says about their data.  Here is one example. 
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/swirlogram-speaks-world-has-reentered-contraction

I think the next 3 months are going to tell us a lot more.  Commodity prices seem to be confirming there is still down side risk in the global economy.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.