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Friday, June 22, 2012

Daily update

I changed the Price bar color page to Chart setup and added a description of the other lines on the chart in case you have not figured out what they are.  I should have done that sooner, sorry about that.

Please respond to the new poll at the top of the left sidebar, thanks.

We got the bounce I mentioned last night the high closing trin should lead to.  The question is what happens now.  Lets take a look at the daily SPX chart.

We ended the day right below the neck line of the very marginal inverse head and shoulders pattern that is all the rage.  The futures came within 3 points of testing yesterday's low before rebounding.  This may be close enough to call it a successful test, but is a bit in the gray area.  This chart looks inconclusive to me on whether the rally is going to resume or not.  The strong rejection from the 50 SMA is a bearish event despite the positive breadth data.  If there is follow through on the down side it could be fast and furious.  Lets zoom in to the 195 min. chart.

We still have red price bars and ended up right below the 18 SMA.  Since we did not make a lower close below the bar that broke the 18 SMA we do not have a confirmed break yet.  Although this chart is slightly negative, it is not completely bearish without a lower close.  The last bar ranges from 1329-1338.  Inside that range the direction is undecided.  A break out either way should see some follow through.


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