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Wednesday, June 27, 2012

Daily update 6/27

The bounce continued today with a decrease in volume.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

The bulls reclaimed the 18 SMA.  That is about all I can say for the bull camp.  Here is the 60 min SPY chart.

Notice the rally stopped right at the 50 SMA.  We also nicely filled the 6/25 gap down.  I put in a new down trend line on that peak.  This may be a bit premature, but it should be valid if the market turns back down tomorrow.  Here is the 195 min. SPY chart.

We have neutral price bars on this time frame and we are still under the 18 SMA.  Nothing here to indicate the short term trend has turned back up yet.  The last chart is the 30 min. SPY chart.

Since the low, the biggest volume bars are all red.  No real sign the bulls are beating down the door to buy.

In the 6/25 daily update I wrote "I think the best bull/bear line to use for now is the hourly 50 SMA up near 1339.  That is far enough away we could have a significant bounce and not disturb the short term down trend."   That is exactly what happened.  If the bulls show up again tomorrow, then we should get through the 60 min. 50 SMA and resume the rally.  This is the place where the bears need to wake up to keep the down trend in tact.  We will see who shows up in the morning.


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