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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

Up 1/29/21

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

? 3/26/21

Sub-Intermediate

Up 3/29/21

?- 4/5/21

? 4/1/21

Short term

Up 4/1/21

Up 4/5/21

Up 4/1/21


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, May 1, 2012

SPX update 5/1

It was an interesting day.  We got a big rally on the slightly better then expected ISM data.  However, we ended the day selling off fairly hard.  Take a look at the daily chart of SPX.


We ended the day slightly below the 4/27 high which came at the .786 retrace level.  That could be important, but I don't know yet.  I have added a trend line across the lows for another early warning sign of trouble. 

The breadth on this rally so far has been good.  Check out the chart of the McClellan oscillator

.
The last few days have given us the strongest shot of breadth since early Feb.  It would appear that we should have enough strength to at least test the prior high in SPX.  However, that daily SPX chart kind of bothers me.  I will be watching that lower trend line very closely in coming days.  Here is another chart that bothers me a little bit.  Check out the NDX 100.


This index has been the strongest index for months and often leads SPX both up and down.  It has definitely lost its upside momentum and closed well off its high today.

The bottom line is that we are still in a short term up trend, but that move is a bit tenuous looking at the moment.  The 1393 level still looks like the key level for determining possible failure of the rally.

Bob

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I also like using the McClellan Oscilator - particularly when it is support/resistance areas.

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.