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Monday, May 21, 2012

SPX daily update

The burning question is whether today was a one day wonder or the start of bigger bounce.  Lets see what the charts say.  Lets start with the SPY daily chart.

The price bar is still red so we did not do enough to upgrade the short term trend to neutral.   It is pretty close though.  Look at that paltry volume, a retest of the low at some point seems likely.  The big volume for several days into the low looks like a possible selling climax.   That should set up some kind of bounce or consolidation pattern in the short term.  Lets zoom in a little and see what the 130 min. chart looks like.

We did manage to get green bars on this time frame, but we are still below the down trend line and the 18 SMA  I don't see that we did enough today to be certain about much of anything.  Tomorrow could easily continue the bounce or roll over and tank.  Because of the possible selling climax, my strategy will be looking to buy a dip tomorrow unless the futures are down big in morning.  I doubt that I would hold a long over night yet.  Even with an up day tomorrow the risk would still be pretty high.


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