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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 10/2/20

Up 8/21/20

Up 10/9/20

Sub-Intermediate

Up 11/10/20

Up 11/4/20

Up 11/9/20

Short term

? 11/18/20

Up 11/5/20

? 11/18/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Friday, May 25, 2012

New 52 week highs and lows

Lets take a look at a chart of new highs.  Here is the link to the site
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYHGH&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=0
I usually change the graph to dots when I get there.  Last year they started doing strange things with the bars.


I used to only look at the raw numbers and not in chart form.  Through that analysis I noticed 100 being an important threshold.  When the market is coming out of a correction, the majority of days the new highs should be above 100.  When I started looking at this chart I noticed the 50 day MA seems pretty useful.  Notice how it turned down in March and April last year ahead of the market down turn.  It also turned up nicely in Nov. and Dec. before the market started its rocket move up.  It can diverge from price at times, and just because it is sloped down it does not mean the market is going to tank.  If price starts to confirm the downward slope then a correction is likely.  However, generally speaking, when it is sloped up the market rises fairly consistently.  It can turn up very sharply out of a correction as an early warning that conditions are improving.  When it drops below 100 like it did last fall it usually takes some time for the market to recover and mount a rally again.  We have not done that yet, but it will soon unless new highs pick up significantly .

Here is the chart for new lows. Link is
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYLOW&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=0


The first important threshold for new lows is 200.  Most minor corrections get very few if any days above 200.  Once you start getting above that for numerous days, you know it is getting more serious.  Once the market starts to rally, I want to see the new lows drop below 100 most days.  Last week we crossed above the 100 threshold for several days, but not 200 yet.  The lows for most stocks are at much lower levels from last fall. That probably makes this a bit useless in this situation, at least until after Oct. of this year.  I think the current pullback has caused more technical damage then is apparent in this data.

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.