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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Is breadth telling us something?

Here is a look at the NYSE 10 DMA of advancing stocks and declining stocks.  The declining stocks are in red, advancing in green.  The bottom of the chart is the 10 DMA of advancing and declining volume.

Since the March 2009 low, the declining MA has reached the level it reached on 5/18 on three other occasions.  That would be 1/29/2010, 5/7/2010, and 8/4/2011.  This is a fairly uncommon event and means this was a very broad based sell off.  Check out the bottom of the chart.  I circled the volume in the prior instances mentioned in the dates above.  Notice how low the volume was with this sell off.  My volume data goes back to 2000, and there is no instance of the breadth being this negative and the volume so light.  This suggests we might not have had a volume climax at the low.  This might help to explain why there still seems to be ample people willing to sell.

Looking back at other instances of such negative breadth, it is somewhat difficult to say what happens a month or more out.  Some times a bottom is made within a couple of weeks and it is up and away.  Other times a longer lasting correction is kicked off.  In this instance, I believe the low volume indicates we will likely get another leg down to new lows at some point.  This does not appear to be a market that is sold out yet.


1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thank you for sharing your expertise and knowledge. It is much appreciated!


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