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Wednesday, May 30, 2012

Daily update

Another rally attempt thwarted.  This bounce has really had trouble every day but one since the low.  Here is the daily SPX chart.

Reversing at the 18 SMA is a strong negative for the market.  We also had an increase in volume over yesterday, another negative.  Since yesterday was the day after a holiday it makes the comparison somewhat tricky though.  This rally attempt is in critical condition and on life support.  Here is the 130 min. chart.

The break out above the upper trend line failed.  Yet another negative sign.  The lower trend line is providing the life support.  A break of today's low should set up a test of the 5/18 low.  We did not get enough strength in the bounce to give me any confidence that low will hold on a retest.  There is still a chance that lower trend line holds if we get some good news tomorrow, but that seems like a lower odds scenario.


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