If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

Up 7/31/20

?- 3/31/20

Up 5/29/20

Intermediate

Up 8/14/20

Up 8/21/20

?+ 9/18/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 9/15/20

Dn 9/11/20

?- 9/14/20

Short term

? 9/4/20

? 8/18/20

? 9/4/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, May 17, 2012

Daily update SPX and DJ-20

Lets start out with a peak at the daily chart.


Volume increased again and so did the range of the day.  If we don't bounce soon we are going to have a very big crash day pretty soon.  The worse then expected economic data this morning put an end to any potential Facebook IPO rally.  This was clearly shown by the action in DJ-20 today.  Take a look at the daily chart first.


Up until today DJ-20 had really been in a trading range while SPX was tanking.  I guess people were holding on thinking the economy was really going to get better.  It looks like today was a point of recognition that maybe that is not the case.  Check out the weekly chart.


This was one of the few indexes that had not completed a top formation.  This chart is clearly busted now.

SPX ended the day very near its 18 month SMA and the round 1300 number.   It closed below the daily 200 EMA.  The 200 SMA is down at 1278.  This market is extremely over sold, but every rally attempt is short lived.  Do not step in front of this freight train until we get some clear sign it is going to reverse.  Big market crashes happen from over sold conditions.   I was amazed last year at how the market just could not bounce on the way down.  That decline ended with some pretty big down days.  So far it is doing the same thing here.  Keep in mind there were many more signs of a major top this year then last.  I have showed the divergences in all the economically sensitive indexes and the big negative breadth divergence in the McClellan oscillator.  None of that was present at the highs last year.  I have also shown the Bloomberg Financial Conditions index and how it is much weaker this year then last.  Everything points to the start of another prolonged bear market.  I don't think we will be seeing the highs again anytime soon.

Bob

No comments:

Important

The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.