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Trend table status

Trend

SP-500

R2000

COMPX

Primary

? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

? 3/31/20

Intermediate

Dn 4/3/20

Dn 3/20/20

?- 3/20/20

Sub-Intermediate

?- 3/26/20

?- 3/26/20

?- 3/25/20

Short term

? 3/26/20

? 4/1/20

? 3/24/20


Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Tuesday, May 15, 2012

Bloomberg Financial Conditions Index

Bloomberg publishes an index that tries to measure the stress on the financial system.  You can see the chart on their site here http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/bfcius:ind/chart  Here is a current chart.

Notice the 0 line on the chart and how we have spent a lot of time below that line in the last 3 years.  I have seen a long term chart of this index on TV and back in the middle part of the last decade it spent almost all its time above the 0 line.  Only getting below 0 on the most extreme market sell offs.  A look at the recent data shows that things do not appear to be near as good as they were at this time last year.  Since this rally began last fall the index only got positive for a brief period of time.  This chart clearly contradicts the pundits on TV that tell us every day how great things are.  In the last two years we have had 15 and 20% sell offs that started from better financial conditions then we have now.   I think this index is worth watching and if it breaks down below its recent lows this market could pick up some steam on the down side,

Bob

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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.