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Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Industrial metals

It is often said that copper has a PHD in economics because it is so widely used.  However, commodities can sometimes have specific supply/demand issues that can cause short term price fluctuations beyond the economic reasons.  The JJM ETF represents all industrial metals together, not just copper.  This should be very representative of the global economy.  Check out the monthly chart below.

JJM is clearly below its 18 SMA and has been there long enough for the 6 SMA to have crossed below it as well.  Recently price has broken the lows of the last two months.  This ETF is clearly not giving us any indication the global economy is picking up.  Back in 2009, JJM turned up strongly in March confirming the big stock market rally.  It also turned up strongly in July 2010 and followed through on the upside in Sept. confirming the move up in stocks that fall.  JJM turned up strongly in Jan., but failed to follow through.  This time it is not confirming the big rally we have seen in the U.S. stock market.  There is a disconnect that was not present from 2009-2011. 


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The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.