If you would like an email sent to you when I update the blog please send an email with "subscribe" in the subject line to traderbob58@gmail.com. To be removed use "unsubscribe".

Search This Blog or Web

Trend table status






? 3/31/20

?- 3/31/20

? 3/31/20


Dn 4/3/20

Dn 3/20/20

?- 3/20/20


?- 3/26/20

?- 3/26/20

?- 3/25/20

Short term

? 3/26/20

? 4/1/20

? 3/24/20

Don Worden of Worden Brothers (makers of Telechart software) used to keep a trend table before his health issues got in the way. I always found it useful. Mine is slightly different. Hopefully helpful. Up? or Dn? means loss of momentum. ? by itself means trend is neutral. ?+ or ?- means trend is neutral with bias of up(+) or down (-)

Thursday, April 2, 2020

Update 4/2

Bulls make a stand based on hope for the price of oil.  There was a tick distribution signal despite today's rally.

SPX closed slightly above yesterday's high because of a furious late day rally.  Unfortunately those last hour moves are not very reliable for future direction.  Breadth was +56% which is not especially strong.  It was even slightly negative with 20 minutes to go.

The futures found some support at the 50 SMA.  The rally today ended at the 20 SMA.  Tomorrow should break out above the 20 or below the 50.  In between those lines market moves are just noise.

The tick signal came during an afternoon sell program.  SPX rallied 35 points in the last 20 minutes to get the close above yesterday's high.  Somebody wants the market to go higher.  I don't have a clue how this plays out.  If the bulls come out to play again SPX might test the recent highs and then roll over and test the low.  We will need to see more strength in the days ahead if the market is going to break out above the recent highs.  Closing below yesterday's low should tip the scales to the bears for a retest of the low.

Peace and good health to all.


Wednesday, April 1, 2020

Update 4/1

The bears came out to play again today.  There was a fresh tick distribution signal.

SPX appears to have been rejected at the 20 SMA yesterday with downside follow through today.  Breadth was -92%.  That could be enough to kick start a move to retest the low.

The futures show a double top pattern and are currently testing the low in the middle.  The bulls still have a chance to rally the market here, but I think they must show up tomorrow in force. 

The virus case  news is only going to get worse for the next few weeks according to the experts.  The economic data is clearly going to get worse.  The only good news I can see for the market would be related to treatment of the virus.  I have no idea how to analyze that.  Does the market have a clue how to analyze that?  The bulls need to prove they area willing to step up and buy or the market is headed lower.  We will see if they are up for the task tomorrow or not.

Peace and good health to all.  Stay home and stay safe.


Wednesday, March 18, 2020

Update 3/18

SPX took out the Dec. 2018 low and fell somewhat lower.  However, it bounced going into the close and ended the day above that low.

There is a possibility the Dec. low holds for now and causes a bounce.  It is along ways down to the next support level so that would be a good thing.

The futures show the break below the recent lows and recovery back into what looks like a consolidation.  This is the best looking bounce setup yet.  Will the bulls step through the door?

What I am looking for as a good indicator of a short term bottom is for the VIX to plunge at least 13% in one day.  We have had several big bounces, but the VIX did not meltdown on any of them.  It is up to the bulls now.

Peace and good health to all.



The information in this blog is provided for educational purposes only and is not to be construed as investment advice.